My take on the 2010 election

 

By MOHAMED MATOPE

What are the parallel between Halloween and Tanzania election? Tanzania general election and Halloween in America this year happen on the same day October 31^st .Americans Irish  and Canadians believe Halloween is the day when the dead can  return to the earth, People  wear costumes  in order to scare off those roaming ghosts .They believe Halloween night   to be  the most terrified night .Tanzania election will be scary and can be terrified to the ruling party .The results of the election are not going to  be sweet to the ruling party CCM.CCM is expected  to  loose  some sits in the parliament but  will still maintain its  majority  status. Also its widely expected that CCM‘s victory will shrink. Mr. Kikwete, who won landslide victory in 2005, will not come close to win 80 percent of the votes this time around. According to the poll conducted in September by University of Dares salaam, Mr. Kikwete has an edge of 61 percent over the opposition parties. That means Mr Kikwete is set to win   roughly 55 to 60 percent of the votes.  That will be record low for the ruling party CCM, but victory is the victory. 


Why Tanzania voters are hesitant to elect opposition parties? Friend of mine told me lack of resources and infrastructure on opposition parties is the biggest impediment to their victory. I don’t believe that, opposition parties has  all the advantages  to win  this election .All the stars are lining toward the  oppositions, they have well known candidate Dr Slaa,former member of parliament  and very charismatic .Mr Lipumba of  KAFU is well educated and well known  in the Tanzania political arenas. The enthusiasm gap is very high among the oppositions compared to CCM. In additional opposition parties are well funded   on this election cycle compare to the previous ones .Means of communications are well improved ,the country is well accessible ,and last but not  least CCM is in  deep trouble due to corruption scandals and unpopular president who is sitting at 38 percent approval rate. Opposition candidates lack executive experience and that is the biggest impediment to their success .


Mwalimu Nyerere once said the biggest opposition will come from within the CCM. Tanzanian voter are very smart, their hungry for change, but they are not desperate, they don’t trust opposition parties to run their government, which is quite reasonable. Mr. Slaa other than being a member of parliament is lacking executive experience, which is very essential in running the government. On the other hand, Mr.Lipumba who is heading the third largest party has 20 years experience of running for president, but there is big difference between running for president and running the country. If you take a look at the opposition leaders who had the success campaign in Kenya, Malawi and Zambia, they all have one thing in common, executive experience. Mr. Kibaki was Minister and vice president, Mr. Muluzi of Malawi was the Minister, Mr.Chiluba of Zambia used to run the biggest union organization. Tanzanian are not risk takers, they want to be certain with their leaders before the put them on the driver sit. They need   an assurance, they want answers. 


The opposition parties failed to present an alternative choice to the voters. Opposition parties lack the winning strategy, bashing CCM is not a winning strategy. You can’t win election on negative .You can’t win election by just pin pointing CCM shortfalls, is like proposing a woman on criticizing her ex. Somehow, somewhere, you have to come up with your own  proposals, solutions to people’s problems. Dr Slaa failed to fill the vacuum that was left out by voter’s anger. People are angry ,they feel like ,they have been left out by their government ,they were told that their living standard would  dramatically improve ,but came to find out 5 years later  their income dropped from $ 375 in 2005 to $ 255 .The opposition parties could have transform voter’s anger into  assurance and eventually win the people’s mind, but they decided to go negative and leave voter with a many  unanswered questions. The major questions that are necessary in transforming voter’s mind , which?,what?,how? and which?. How are you going to govern? Which direction are you going to take the country? what transition path are going to take ?how far are you going to compromise with ruling party ,which current  policies are you going to eliminate and which ones are you going to maintain?. These are serious questions that need serious answers. 


CCM to their credit   are heading for a big change  of the landscape of the country’s political system, they have put many young candidates to run for parliament than ever before. Next parliament is set to be the youngest parliament ever, which is very good for the future of the country. Mr. Kikwete too deserves credit for putting very sound economic policies, policies that has put Tanzania over the top among African countries south of Sahara in terms of recovery from the recession. According to IMF datas, Tanzania is generating average of annual growth of 6.7 percent, higher than USA which stays at around 3 percent. Tanzania is well respected internationally now than it was 5 years ago. It is very difficult  to make people understand about GDP, because  in the real world  peoples cares about pocket book issues, their income, their living standard,  their kid’s future. But it takes time to transform country’s good economic growth into individual’s prosperous. The country is on the right track, we should remain optimistic because the better days are in front of us .God bless Tanzania and our leaders.