Critical test for Kenyan nation

Mobhare Matinyi, Washington DC. The Citizen, Tanzania. Friday, March 1, 2013

On Monday, Kenya will face an extremely crucial test to prove to the world that it is a politically mature nation worth of respect. President Mwai Kibaki, 81, has completed his second term, and Kenyans will be electing their fourth president since independence.

 

The world still remembers the violence that befell Kenya after the December 2007 presidential poll when more than 1,000 people died. Frankly though, Kenya has never had peaceful multi-party elections although according to the Carter Center the 2002 elections were slightly better compared to 1992 and 1997 despite some violence during campaigning.

 

During the December 1992 presidential polls, the incumbent president Daniel arap Moi, running under the Kenya African National Union (KANU), the party that brought independence, won by merely 36.4 percent. Human Rights Watch accused him and his Vice President, George Saitoti, of a common African practice, that is, stuffing ballot boxes and inciting violence.

 

In 1997 things got more ethnic as Moi, a Kalenjin, did better by scooping 40.6 percent while Kibaki, a Kikuyu, moved one position up with 31 percent, ahead of Raila Odinga, a Luo, at 10.8 percent. The remaining votes were distributed among 12 other candidates. As was the case in 1992, the Rift Valley Province spilled more blood for the same usual reasons – land dispute and ethnic hatred.

 

Moi knowing that he would leave office in 2002 to honor the two-term limit, appointed his heir to the throne, Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of the fist president, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta. Then, he got the loyalty of Musalia Mudavadi, a Luhya, and William Ruto, his fellow Kalenjin, but that wasn’t enough for KANU.

 

That misadventure united the opposition under the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) with Kibaki as their candidate. NARC was formed by all major tribes of Kenya except the Kalenjin, in fact even the Kikuyu dumped their son Kenyatta because of Moi. Kenyans wanted a change, so the rest of the major tribes united behind Kibaki who then received 61.3 percent of votes while Kenyatta got 30.2 percent. KANU collapsed for good.

 

The next five years under NARC didn’t yield enough changes for Kenyans, so come 2007 the opposition coalition left Kibaki alone with his dominant Kikuyu, and other minorities like Meru and Embu under their Party of National Unity (PNU), which was weak in numbers but strong in power.

 

Odinga formed the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) but fell out with Kalonzo Musyoka who then created his ODM-Kenya with his Kamba tribesfolk. Odinga obtained the support of the Luhya, Kalenjin and muslims from the Coast, which essentially made him stronger than Kibaki in numbers as indicated by opinion polls.

 

Now, these were the real politics of Kenya, neither ideology nor policy, but tribes. Remember, the Kikuyu are 22 percent of the population while the Luhya make up 14 percent, the Luo 13, the Kalenjin 12 and the Kamba 11. The ethnic calculations favored Odinga who stood for ODM more than the rest, but he wasn’t an incumbent, and that made the difference.

 

The final tally was messed up and even as we speak, nobody knows exactly how much each one of them got. Anyway, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) announced that the incumbent Kibaki had won by 46.4 percent against Odinga's 44.1. Interestingly, the Government of Kenya recorded 47 and 44 percents for Kibaki and Odinga respectively.

 

Later in 2008, the American-commissioned exit poll released the results that showed Odinga was the winner by 46 percent against 40 percent of Kibaki, well outside the 1.3 percent margin of error. It didn’t matter as Kibaki ruled Kenya for another five years.

 

This time around though, with a new constitution in place, Kibaki retiring, and former enemies, the Kalenjin and Kikuyus camping together because of Kenyatta and Ruto, things may not go wrong. Kenyatta and Ruto are fighting for their lives believing that if they win, then their case at the International Criminal Court (ICC) will be handled in an “African way.”

 

Unfortunately though, Odinga is predicting foul play believing that the Kikuyu will rob him of his victory as they did in 2007, and that’s serious! Most likely, the first round will not secure over 50 percent for anyone because of ethnic calculations.

 

So, the Kikuyu have Kenyatta and three others who are Paul Muite, Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth, a Kikuyu-German hybrid. The Luhya have Musalia Mudavadi, Luos have Odinga, while Kalenjins support Kenyatta, and Kambas support Odinga because of Musyoka. Minority Maasai and Muslims have James Ole Kiyiapi and Mohamed Dida respectively.

 

Kenyans are very likely to go into the second round to witness the final battle of the two giants, Kenyatta and Odinga, but what matters is peace and tranquility. Strictly, the Kenyan nation is facing a critical test of its character, and we hope our fellow East Africans will pass with flying colors.