OVERVIEW OF CCM PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION CONTEST

Is it going to be a battle between establishment candidates?

 

BY: Mohamed Matope

So far, there are no CCM candidates running for the 2015 presidential nomination - well at least not officially. However, the line of potential contenders is already crowded and continually getting longer.

More than two-dozen key members of CCM are holding serious conversations with their nearest and dearest: their families, their friends and their supporters. In addition, at least ten of these members have encouraged (or at the least failed to discourage) supporters from floating their names.

If there is one thing you can say about the 2015 presidential field, is this: It is going to be huge.

In fact, if trends hold, the number of candidates in 2015 would be triple the number of candidates who have run for the CCM nomination in any previous elections. Moreover, not all of these “candidates” will actually run. Take for example, Hamisi Kigwangalla, MP for Nzega, and William Ngeleja, MP for Sengerema, who are both non-cabinet members. Though they may appear on the list of contenders, they are not serious contenders as presidential candidates for the 2015 election.

Still it appears that even though some will not make the race, we have many credible potential candidates that speak to the key dynamic of the coming CCM race: In the end, with the level of capabilities and competition that we have for this year’s election, it appears we have no true front-runner – not yet anyway.

Historically, the nomination process began with an establishment’s favorite and a pack of challengers with the establishment’s candidate usually winning. We have experience this in 1985, 1995 and 2005 with President Mwinyi, President Mkapa (after early front-runner P.M. John Malecela candidacy was derailed), and President Kikwete respectively.

This time however, there is neither a favorite candidate nor a powerful political figure, like Mwalimu Nyerere, that could influence the nomination outcome.

The early political junky opinion shows roughly equal support for two prospective candidates: Minister Bernard Membe and former PM Edward Lowassa. Yet, their support is not strong enough to dissuade other candidates from jumping in.

Lowassa is certainly the most widely recognized presidential candidate in 2015. He has a great breadth of experience as a Prime Minister, including over twenty years in the house of parliament. In most respects, Lowassa is exactly the kind of candidate one would expect the CCM to nominate in 2015.  Luckily, he has the political credentials of a typical modern presidential candidate, thus he will not have to be trained for the job.

Unfortunately, history is not on Lowassa’s side. In the past, Prime Ministers, both former and sitting, have had little success with CCM Presidential nominations or elections. Six out of eight Prime Ministers, including the sitting PMs, have tried to run for CCM Presidential nominations, including: John Malecela and Cleopa Msuya in 1985 election, Fredrick Sumaye and Salim Ahmed Salim in 2005 election. Disappointingly, to them (and partly to the masses), none of them succeeded.

At the moment, it appears that Foreign Minister Membe might be considered the closest thing to an early front-runner, perhaps even the establishment’s candidate. Membe has not stopped running for the presidential seat since he was first appointed as a foreign minister in 2007, and yet, he has gained very little or minimal traction in term of solidifying his candidacy.

If history can be used as a guide, Membe is in the right position to win the CCM nomination. In fact, two of the most recent CCM presidential nominees were foreign ministers — Mkapa in 1995 and Kikwete in 2005.

Pragmatically, Membe has a major obstacle to overcome in terms of actually becoming a major player in 2015. Though he is little known and lacks the public profile of Lowassa, Sitta or Pinda, the absence of national persona can be an asset especially if you consider the fact that NEC has not nominated high profile candidates in the past.

Overall, the 2015 Presidential Pool is wild and massive. I am convinced that we currently do not have an anointed candidate in this election cycle, yet. While Lowassa is still the person to beat, he is beatable. At this point, Membe is his strongest competitor, but clearly, there are many others anxious willing to join Membe at his quest to become our president.

We have almost three months before the nomination, which is lifetime in politics; anything can happen between now and May 5^th. As we all know, the NEC nomination process is historically unpredictable.

MOHAMED MATOPE is Blog writer, magazines contributor, and political strategi