Obama’s Victory and the racial trajectory in America

BY    MOHAMED MATOPE

Obama’s last night second term presidential victory has many trajectories, the most vivid one is the impact of demographic change in America electoral map. According to the exit polls Obama has won more than 70 percent of Hispanic votes and more than 90 percent of black votes, the two fastest growing demographics in the country.Mr  Obama also has  won key battle ground states of Colorado and Nevada ,rocky mountain western states  with the increasing number of Hispanic population.

 One out of five of the people in Colorado is Hispanic, among them 70 percent supported Mr. Obama in yesterdays election. Few weeks ago in an interview with The Des Moines Register Mr. Obama told reporters that republican party’s stiffness in immigration reform will cost them majority of Hispanic votes, he said “A big reason I will win a second term is because the Republican nominee and Republican Party have so alienated the fastest-growing demographic group in the country, the Latino community”.

  The country is becoming more diverse with a growing Hispanic population and an even faster-growing Asian population. Demographic changes have already spelled trouble for the Republican Party. Republican party’s support to the immigration laws in the states like Arizona( where police can stop any person  and ask for  papers if they suspect the person is in the country  illegally) and their opposition to Dream act ( a   widely popular bill among Hispanic, signed  to law by Obama back in July, which stop the deportation of young immigrants  brought to the United States illegally as children and make them eligible for work permits ) have  made almost immoral for any foreigner to vote for them.

For a long time Republican Party have tried to distinguish between legal immigration and illegal immigration. During the campaign Mitt Romney tried to make the case that republican Party is welcoming legal immigration and against illegal immigration. That  message is laughable to the foreigners on which majority of them have either  lived through the horror of U.S immigration process or know the peoples in their communities, relatives or friend who are undocumented. To the foreigners’ legal and illegal immigration are not  mutually exclusive. When they hear Republican rhetoric like, idea of round illegal immigrants up and send them back to their country or suggesting to change 14^th amendment in the US constitution so that can deny citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants, the first thing come to the foreigner’s mind is, if they hate members of my communities, my relatives or my friends, then they hate me too.

Lastly let me answer the question on how Obama’s victory will change the racial trajectories in America. The white population in United States is shrinking. According to the united US Bureau of Census, white population grew by only 6 percent from 211.5 million in 2000 to 223.6 million in 2010 while total U.S. population grew by 9.7 percent over the same period. Hispanic population grew by 43 percent, rising from 35.3 million in 2000 to 50.5 million in 2010. In 1988 presidential election, George Bush senior won 60 percent of white votes and  was propelled to win 426 electoral collages, in the yesterday’s election Mitt Romney won about 60 percent of white votes and had net gain of only 203 electoral collages (you need 270 electoral collages to win the white house). That tell us the old electoral equation embraced by Republicans for many years of older and whiter is no longer workable against the country with the new electoral demographic which is, younger and browner. My prediction is, 2012 is the last election year where 2 white males (Like Romney and Ryan) run on the same ticket, because it is political suicide. In the upcoming elections we will see more of the mixed tickets, white male and minority or vice versa.